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Rather than marking a cyclical rebound, 2026 is significantly viewed as a combination year, in which diversification-led development ends up being more deeply ingrained in the region's economic model, decreasing reliance on hydrocarbons and increasing strength to external shocks. Forecasts from major institutions broadly assemble on a more powerful GCC growth profile in 2026 than in 2025, supported by resistant domestic demand, continued non-oil growth, and (to varying degrees) a firmer hydrocarbon contribution.
3.2 percent growth in 2025, speeding up to 4.5 percent in 2026. Sees momentum improving, with GCC output growth projected to increase from 1.7 percent in 2024 to 3.3 percent on average in 2025, reflecting a shift towards more positive overall conditions.
The IMF's World Economic Outlook (October 2025) jobs worldwide growth easing to 3.1 percent in 2026, with sophisticated economies around 1.5 percent and emerging market and establishing economies just above 4 percent. On that comparison, a 4.44.5 percent GCC growth would position the region materially ahead of the world average and slightly above (or broadly in line with) the emerging-market aggregate, strengthening the GCC's status as a fairly high-growth pocketprovided that regional danger conditions stay contained and reform momentum holds.
Information from the GCC Statistical Center reveal that non-oil sectors already represent more than 73 percent of total GDP, a share that has actually continued to rise as governments broaden investment in services, facilities, and technology. According to Oxford Economics, non-energy activity across the GCC is projected to grow by around 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by strong labor markets, improving credit conditions, and increasing financial investment in technology and AI-related facilities.
Public-sector financial investment and reform remain main to sustaining this trend. Policy measures focused on attracting foreign direct financial investment, easing foreign ownership rules, expanding capital markets, and supporting private-sector involvement continue to underpin non-oil growth and minimize the region's direct exposure to oil rate volatility. While hydrocarbons no longer dominate the development outlook, oil incomes are expected to play a helpful role in 2026.
Oxford Economics expects Brent crude costs to fall below USD 60 per barrel in early 2026, limiting the near-term contribution of oil extraction to GDP. Oil supply is anticipated to rise again in the 2nd half of the year, with a complete relaxing of staying production caps most likely by mid-2027.
Macroeconomic conditions across the GCC remain broadly supportive of development. Inflation is anticipated to remain low, with the IMF forecasting typical inflation of 2 percent across the region in 2026. Stable prices are helping preserve real household earnings and underpin customer costs, which Oxford Economics expects to grow by approximately 3.5 percent over 20262027.
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