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To reverse a decade of damaging total factor performance, local labour market policy is shifting from basic job production to managing active labor force shifts. Federal governments and employers are scaling short, modular training programmes and micro-credentials in data analytics and digital operations to gear up workers for emerging roles. Workplace-based learning and apprenticeship-style pathways are becoming more typical as companies integrate AI tools into everyday workflows.
With oil costs anticipated to typical $55-60 per barrel in 2026, local governments are heightening their concentrate on expenditure discipline and private capital mobilisation. Financial policy is rotating towards the monetisation of state-owned possessions in logistics, utilities, and desalination to reroute funds toward higher-impact investments. While loaning via sukuk and sustainability-linked bonds is expected to increase to fund strategic deficits, the focus stays on strengthening non-oil income structures.
PwC Middle East financial policy and strategy partner Jing Teow said: "Having already mobilised capital and policy at scale, GCC federal governments are now concentrated on shipment. In 2026, the priority is enhancing economic resilience through more secure trade and investment relationships, efficient AI implementation, managed workforce transitions and disciplined financial policy in a more difficult and fragmented worldwide environment.".
Saudi Arabia and UAE are poised to lead the Gulf region's economic growth in 2026, supported by strong private-sector efficiency, durable domestic need and restored financial investment momentum, according to the most recent ICAEW Economic Insight Q4 2025 report, produced by Oxford Economics. The GCC is expected to outperform most global areas peers next year, with regional GDP forecast to grow by 4.4%. Across the GCC, non-energy activity is predicted to expand by 4.1% in 2026, driven by strong labour markets, enhancing credit conditions and rising investment in technology and AI-related facilities.
Although oil incomes will be under pressure in the first half of 2026, production is anticipated to rise again in the second half of 2026, supporting the area's medium-term outlook, it mentioned. Saudi Arabia will remain a major contributor to GCC momentum, with GDP forecast to grow 4.3% in 2026.
Development will be supported by commercial growth and policy reforms, including alleviated foreign ownership guidelines that aim to stimulate further investment. The fiscal deficit is predicted to widen to 5.6% of GDP next year in the middle of softer oil prices, while the recent five-year rent freeze in Riyadh intends to relieve inflationary pressures, though it may constrain future real estate supply.
Strong domestic fundamentalsThe UAE is also positioned for another strong year of efficiency, with GDP projection to increase 5.6% in 2026 as non-oil sectors continue to expand. Tourism, trade and financial services remain essential growth chauffeurs, supported by population growth and sustained domestic demand. Dubai's economy grew 4.4% in the first half of 2025, showing broad-based non-oil strength.
Oil production is anticipated to get once again in the 2nd half of 2026, complementing ongoing financial investment in infrastructure, innovation and international trade partnerships. Hanadi Khalife, the Head of Middle East, ICAEW, said: "This quarter's outlook reinforces how far the GCC has actually been available in structure diverse, durable and internationally competitive economies.
Scott Livermore, ICAEW Economic Consultant, and Chief Economic Expert and Managing Director, Oxford Economics Middle East, said: "Saudi Arabia and the UAE are going into 2026 with strong foundations. Saudi non-oil activity is gaining pace, supported by robust demand and rising financial investment, even as fiscal pressures increase.""The UAE continues to gain from strong domestic basics, a sharp uplift in federal government spending and continual diversity efforts.
What distinguishes 2026 from preceding years is not just the velocity of technological modification, though that velocity is real, but rather a fundamental shift in how business develop of their GCCs' purpose. The is anticipated to grow to four hundred thirteen billion dollars by 2040, but this development masks a more extensive change.
Rather, they ask whether these centers drive innovation, own profit-and-loss duty, and contribute to competitive differentiation. In 2026, the most successful GCCs will act like internal startups, nimble, cross-functional, insight-driven, and deeply aligned with worldwide company results. This shift from execution to ownership represents perhaps the single most considerable strategic recalibration in the GCC model's development.
Today, we're convening more than 3000 meetings in between financiers and 119 Gulf-listed companies with a combined value of $2.4 trillion at the HSBC GCC Exchanges Conference 2026, in London. We're uniting financiers, business, exchanges, and policymakers to discuss what is changing in the area, and what follows, including the expansion and continuous advancement of the Gulf's capital markets, and the region's growing role in global networks of capital and trade.
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